Old mistakes haunt Pakistan and Babar in mediocre World Cup campaign

Babar Azam was set, and there was a certain inevitability to the ease with which he'd brought up the 50-run partnership with his trusty team-mate Mohammad Rizwan at the other end. Pakistan's semi-final hopes were over, but there was still a World Cup game to be won, and Pakistan's captain would need to be there if that was to happen.

Gus Atkinson, the least experienced international cricketer in England's squad ran in and banged one in short. Adil Rashid had been stationed at short midwicket to put Babar off the pull, and yet Babar pulled anyway. His timing was nowhere near good enough, and just like that, off his 45th delivery, Babar's World Cup campaign ended with a whimper. Pakistan's campaign overall, too, would end equally meekly, as they succumbed by 93 runs to a side that had been beaten by all but Bangladesh and Netherlands.

Babar had begun the tournament with that dismissal, falling to Netherlands' Colin Ackermann, and Adam Zampa had laid the same trap Babar would walk headfirst into halfway through Pakistan's campaign. Perhaps fittingly, in a tournament that has seen Pakistan repeat old mistakes, their captain would epitomise that, ending the tournament as he started it.

Comparing any ICC event to the 1992 World Cup has become a cultural touchstone of Pakistani cricket, though by now, that comparison is invoked more in jest than in earnest. As Pakistan began to drop down the table after a historic four successive defeats early on in the tournament, Excel sheets and probability trees were passed around, Pakistan's improbable path to the semis clearly delineated. It couldn't, could it?

It couldn't indeed. Pakistan's median age is under 21 years old; more than half the population wasn't even born when New Zealand last missed a World Cup semifinal, let alone remembering this side's magical run to the 1992 title. What they could remember more distinctly, however, was a tournament much more recent, much more relevant. Similarities with 1992 might be coincidental glitches, but those with 2019 aren't quite explained as easily.

The field was understandably up; Pakistan needed just one run to win in 11 balls. Dilshan Madushanka bowled something of a half-volley, and Rizwan only needed to lean into the drive, placing it through a gap as it raced away for four. The ball hit the rope, but the game was already over before that. Rizwan and Iftikhar had jogged across for a single, and it was one, not four, that counted in the record books - and, more importantly, in the net run rate (NRR) calculations.

It may perhaps have been inconsequential, but for a side that missed out on NRR in 2019, one might have expected them to take advantage of every possible marginal in that department. Especially since New Zealand, the team who pipped them that year, had begun the World Cup by smashing England in a win that gave their own NRR an early headstart, something they'd prioritized after it became apparent victory was certain. After the final drinks break, they smashed 49 off the last 20 balls, winning with 82 balls to spare. It was the first game of the World Cup, who knew how important NRR would be? For a side that had seen it prove to be their saving grace in 2019, they were taking no chances.

And in the end, it was recent rather than ancient history which would repeat itself. In a World Cup where realistically, only five teams mustered up enough of a challenge to qualify for the semi-finals, all that mattered was ensuring not to finish bottom of that little mini-group. And with India, South Africa and Australia pulling away, perhaps it wasn't so surprising that New Zealand and Pakistan were left battling it out for fourth again. And while New Zealand had cared for their NRR like a first-born child, Pakistan treated it as their spare early on. Just like 2019, that cushion Pakistan had allowed them to build was just enough to keep Babar Azam's side at bay.

The fallout from an early World Cup exit will never be measured or proportionate in Pakistan, particularly while the board itself finds itself in a farcical wrangle between two opposing political factions that have few ambitions for Pakistan cricket but huge ambitions for their own selves. It was evident in a statement the PCB issued while the team was at a particularly low point halfway through the campaign, effectively hanging Babar and chief selector Inzamam-ul-Haq to dry. At the same time, they would distance themselves from any operational calls made towards assembling the team, promising that "looking ahead, the board will make decisions in the best interest of Pakistan cricket".

But if board dysfunction could explain all on-field performances, Pakistan cricket would have no achievements to call its own. The core of this Pakistan squad is the same as the one that so narrowly missed out in 2019 - Fakhar Zaman, Imam-ul-Haq, Babar, Shadab Khan and Shaheen Afridi - are all four years more experienced, and close to their primes. It was not unreasonable to expect that to reflect in performances, especially now that Babar is, considering how brief Pakistan captains' stints tend to be, a fairly experienced leader.

And while some things - like Fakhar's sudden loss of form, Babar's inability to convert his starts, Haris Rauf's distinctly ordinary World Cup, or Naseem Shah's injury - could arguably be put down to bad timing, the stagnation in evidence is also getting harder to deny. Imam is that rarest of things, an ODI specialist, but though his consistency of accumulation matches up to most of his contemporaries, he remains one-paced to the extreme.

He has faced more deliveries with the first 10 overs' fielding restrictions than any Pakistan batter besides Fakhar since he made his debut, and boasts a lower strike rate in that period than Abid Ali, Fakhar, Haris Sohail, Babar, Abdullah Shafique or Shan Masood. The last time he struck at over a run a ball came in March 2022. Throughout his career, he has achieved a strike rate in excess of 100 just five times in 71 innings, two of them against Zimbabwe. None of those innings came in a World Cup match, either in 2019 or 2023, and his average dropped in the last World Cup to 38, more than ten runs below his career average, and to 27 this one.

Shadab also may find his ODI career at a crossroads. It is possible he may never develop into an ODI spinner of the quality of Adam Zampa or Adil Rashid, but comparisons with the two previous ICC events he played illustrate how precipitous the decline has been. His showings in the 2017 Champions Trophy and the 2019 World Cup are reasonably faithful to his overall numbers in terms of economy rate and average, but at this tournament, the average ballooned to nearly 120, and the economy rate to nearly a full run over his career average. And the eye test arguably looked worse; where his next ball would land was something of a prediction lottery, long hops and full tosses peppering the occasional balls that found lengths legspinners usually find success around.

Pakistan did have the foresight to take an extra spinner and the courage to use him, but found little luck with Usama Mir either. It combined to make Pakistan the worst spin-bowling side in the tournament; only Sri Lanka took fewer spin wickets than Pakistan's 12, and while no other side's spinners conceded more than a run a ball, Pakistan's combined for an economy rate of 6.20. Pakistan supporters insisted Abrar Ahmed should have been in the squad, but as Shadab pithily put it, "whoever's not in the side becomes a great player." Abrar might indeed have cleared the low bar of outperforming his legspin counterparts, but for a man who has played just 12 List A games, the last of which came in March 2022, this is a prediction based very much on vibes.

Shaheen's lack of early menace hasn't helped either, though a few crossroads moments make you wonder how easily the tournament could have gone differently. David Warner being dropped by Usama early on in an innings that would ultimately overwhelm Pakistan stands out for its importance, though Pakistan's woeful showing in the field means there is no shortage of examples to pick from. His loss of pace may have underlying fitness issues, though it is worth noting his left-arm contemporary Trent Boult, too, has generally struggled for early breakthroughs this tournament, and the window in which the ball moves around is vanishingly small at the top.

Ultimately, though, if blood in the water is smelled, it is Babar who needs to be checked for scrapes and bruises. Speculation around his captaincy is only likely to become more fevered, and though he told Michael Atherton after the England defeat he wanted to lead the Pakistan rebuild, that decision may well be taken out of his hands. As the visible face of Pakistan's disappointing time in India, he may come in for more heat than is fair, though if people were hoping he was evolving as a captain, it didn't show at the World Cup.

In-game management, and the ability to stem the tide of momentum once it shifts, remains something Babar shows little evidence of becoming sharper about, something that was on display most conspicuously in the losses to Australia and Afghanistan. As captain for more than three years, it may be the right time to give way as Pakistan rebuild for the 2025 Champions Trophy, though with few obvious uniting presences to take over from him, merely anointing someone else is unlikely to bring transformational change.

For a side that was ranked atop the ODI charts just a few weeks ago, Pakistan are finding that the drop down is always quicker than the climb up top. At a World Cup they entered with such initial optimism, they will now see teams they looked down the table at contest for the prize it was all heading towards. And now, perhaps, they face their greatest challenge of all: a rebuild that is constructive rather than vindictive.