Starc contrast between the Mitch of then and now

Not to be super delicate about the way we phrase things, but Mitchell Starc has kinda sucked this World Cup.

We can begin with the surface-level analysis. In the 2015 World Cup, he was joint-top wicket-taker alongside Trent Boult, with 22 wickets. But where Boult had taken his wickets at an average of 16.86, Starc had them at 10.18.

In 2019, he topped the wicket charts by himself, and by a huge distance - he had 27 wickets at 18.59, with the next-best, Lockie Ferguson, trailing by six wickets. In both events, he had a strong claim to being the bowling MVP.

In this edition, where he could have firmed up his reputation as one of the best bowlers ODI World Cups have ever seen, Starc is 24th-equal on the wicket-takers' list with an average of 43.90, and an economy rate of 6.55. You don't want to say this about a Champion - capital C - bowler, but it can't be escaped.

If we're trying to soften it, let's say we're only measuring him by the very high standards he himself has set, and relative to those, it's true:

Mitchell Starc = not good right now.

Why is that? Could it be as simple as just not getting enough assistance from the conditions when Australia are bowling first?

"If you look at purely numbers, there's been a lot of guys across a lot of teams not have the numbers they would have liked," Starc said on Monday. "The wickets have certainly been two very different wickets through the day and through the night - none more than probably Mumbai. It's certainly been more beneficial to swing the ball and nip the ball under lights."

That seamers tend to do better in the early evening in South Asia has been a theory for some time. Except that in the four innings that Australia have bowled second in day/night games this tournament, Starc has still averaged 36.80, gone at 6.13 runs an over, and taken only five wickets. These are better numbers than his stats bowling first this World Cup, but it's hard to get away from the fact that they are still not great.

This, by the way, is decidedly not a spin-bowlers' World Cup, despite it being held in South Asia. Adam Zampa leads the wicket-takers' chart, but trailing him are six quicks from four different teams. Of the top 15 wicket-takers, nine are seam bowlers. Starc, you'd think would have been up there.

He's not even among the top four left-arm quicks, who are Dilshan Madushanka, Shaheen Afridi, Marco Jansen, and Boult. And Boult has not had a particularly good tournament himself, averaging 32.15, and at times struggling for penetration with the new ball, which is often his strength.

Starc has struggled with the new ball too. Across the World Cup, he's bowled 150 deliveries in the first 10 overs, conceded 143 runs (an economy rate of 5.56), and taken four wickets at an average of 34.75. Not fun numbers for someone who is obviously so good.

The later-in-the-innings stats are even worse, and because this is an outstanding cricketer, we're going to rush through them very quickly, in the knowledge he could well turn them around. Between overs 10 and 40 this World Cup, he's averaged 89, and taken only two wickets. In the death overs - the last 10 - he's gone at 8.69 an over, and bagged four wickets.

There is a theory that Starc is the kind of bowler who needs a good spell first up in order to acquire the good vibes that see him become a middle and late-overs terror, but actually, this is untrue. In 2019, his best World Cup ever, Starc took only four wickets and averaged 40 in the first 10 overs right across that tournament, but was good in the middle overs, and smashed the death overs to such an extent that his average in the last 10 was 7.81, and his economy rate 4.96. He also delivered one of the balls of the tournament, that late-tailing yorker into the base of Ben Stokes' off stump.

What ails him in this version? There's no data-based reason, really. It's been said that superfast bowlers have had a modest tournament, but Jasprit Bumrah, Lockie Ferguson, Kagiso Rabada, and Madushanka have done okay in terms of average, actually. When you look at the big picture, Starc is something of an outlier.

So we fall back on the incalculables - rhythm, form, good vibes. Starc has done so well in the two previous ODI World Cups, you just expected him to rock this one too. For some reason, he hasn't. But such is the public trust in him that there would be little surprise to his getting his game going in the knockouts.

Australia have trusted him repeatedly, giving him the death overs even when he has seemed off colour. Sure, Mitchell Starc has kinda sucked in this World Cup but if there was someone who you'd expect to come right in a tense situation, this is the guy.